Why Buy 4.5 ETH for $10k Before 2024?

2024 Election Cycle Meets Tech Cycle, AI & More

Mati Allin


Important point: never use leverage or loans to enter crypto. This is not investment advice, I’m not an investment advisor. I’m simply writing about what others are saying on Financial YouTube. Financial commentary ages like already spoiled milk. This will not be relevant if market conditions change at all. Never spend more than you can afford to lose trying to win a highly repeating 10x play. If you’re not convinced now about crypto being a bigger part of the future, you might end up playing more catch-up later on. At least consider these points about where we are at in the financial cycle.

Background: Every economist would agree that when the FED pivots their economic policy from increasing interest rates to cutting interest rates (as they may do today on Dec 13, 2023), stocks typically drop briefly (for 1 quarter) and then the next bull market starts (and continues as long as rates continue to be cut, typically a couple years).

Prediction: So, 1) when the FED pivots either today or in 2 months and 2) if $ETH drops a couple 10%, then: that would be a great entry into $ETHE on the stock market. Another strategy would be to buy the same amount monthly, starting now. Bonus if you accumulate ETH from Coinbase or hold your own keys with MetaMask, but don’t let that stop you now from looking at $ETHE on the stock market. Below I explain the case for why accumulating $10k of ETH before 2024 could be extremely wise.

The Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to be approved by US regulators in January, 2024 and will pave the way for the filings already submitted by Blackrock and 5 other Wall Street trusts to get their ETH ETF approved next. The ETH market has started pricing this in, but it has way more going for it (almost didn’t mention upcoming government approvals — but it matters a lot to some individuals).

Surprisingly: If I knew someone with $25k in ETH today I would say NOT selling it today is still long-term wise even if there is a short-term fall. Holding even with an outlook of short-term down is OK because on the 20% chance it just rips up from here — that is a big enough risk to not go playing it wrong.

It’s easy to understand that ETH has the best fundamental technology in the entire world of finance. 88% of gains in the S&P 500 in the first half of 2023 were in the top 7 tech giants alone, meaning that just 12% came from the other 493 leading companies in the US. Lesson: tech continues pulling away incredibly from other asset sectors in terms of gains.

Trading on a daily time-frame here is further complicated by the fact that it’s impossible to tell if ETH will buck the trend of going down on the positive FED news. Sure, it’s true that in the past couple years the price of ETH has performed EXACTLY like a risk-on tech STOCK rather than being de-correlated from the stock market (as many hippies hoped and proclaimed). So you might think you know what the market will do. But that’s betting that millennials who suddenly use god-like AI for work and play haven’t bothered asking how to play this crypto cycle to get ahead.

Does AI Agree?

ChatGPT 4, a paid model from OpenAI refused to answer my question about price until I asked twice. It started telling me the right answer and then “stopped analyzing”. When I pressed the button for “regenerate” it gave me the correct answer of $16.4k ETH and bunch of disclaimers. I got the answer with only 2 minutes of work.

People I listen to: what are they saying?

If ETH investors are now much wiser and sophisticated because of AI technology, then it’s even possible to see a mega-bull hyper-cycle in crypto suddenly start (25% chance) in 0–2 months and top anywhere from mid-2025 to 2026. A smaller cycle, starting early relative to the 4-year bitcoin halving cycle/schedule is still going to be a 3–6 month run in 2024 that would see ETH run from $2.2k today to $5.1k minimum.

Now, let’s be EXTREMELY CLEAR: A normal crypto cycle would see ETH do a 10x, from $900 in late 2022 to $9,000ish *in* April 2025.

Day trading crypto at this point of the global economic cycle is, in my estimation, 1,000% more risky than day trading stocks. Downside is 100% in crypto and stocks but there’s an easy 10x upside on ETH this cycle, just like in the beginning in 2014–2015 when you could buy ETH for $0.30 or the 2016 cycle when I bought 1 ETH for $12.50 and paid a $7.50 fee to Coinbase. Or when ETH hit $1,400 in 2017, then dipped to $90 where I bought it in 2019 and sold it for $4,500 in 2021, and you could have bought ETH at $900 at the end of 2022, so if it only goes to $9k like I think or $16k like AI thinks, you might figure it’s undervalued at $2.2k.

Macro Factors

Remember: world-wide political policies cause macro easing / printing / monetary creation of dollar-denominated debt through lowering interest rates and facilitating ever-increasing trillions of made-up value spread through inter-bank loans, international credit facilities — even massive asset purchases from the public market (nationalized subsidies) and stimulus-plans for insiders. Fed money printing is what drives risk-on markets like tech stocks and crypto.

Fun Side-Prediction: woo woo people and the news will find it interesting that the 2nd Great American Solar Eclipse this century (and in the past decade) coming up on April 8, 2024 is so close in time to the 4-year Bitcoin halving that is variable by several days and currently would land in April 2024 as well. The last American solar eclipse was August 21, 2017 just as Bitcoin was going into a bull market.

How Much?

2024–25 will be the 1st bull market in stocks where 2 cryptos (BTC & ETH) will be approved to trade spot on the stock market, and only ETH is deflationary based on a 2.0 change made on September 15, 2022. Most people don’t understand that Bitcoin halving every 4 years is only DIS-inflationary (which means decreasing amounts of inflation).

If you have significant long-term savings, it could be seen as risky/irresponsible to not have $10,000 of long-term savings in ETH. That’s 4.545454 ETH at todays price of $2,200 = 1 ETH on Wednesday December 13, 2023. Half of your exit might be at 8.3k, and half of that at $19k per ETH. Or you could play 4.5 ETH to 100k total and if no top has been hit yet in ETH then you’d rotate to PLS, which if it didn’t top harder first already, then you could see another 10x that same cycle to get out half a million and leave $500k in PLS (if normal cycle) or rotate to HEX (if super-cycle and no relative peak yet and it hasn’t run against PLS).

Why is “getting off zero” ETH so important?

If the cost of the safest cars and decent healthcare and college are all going to keep rising at 20% per year, then your $10,000 of long-term savings will have the same purchasing power in 11 years as what buys you $1,000 of medicine today. But also technology would be deflationary if the government didn’t print so much, so in the end whatever savings technology people use is the one that is the best store of value. In the end it’s up to us — the people who produce goods and services — how we exchange and store value over time. Having both dollars and ETH is a good idea and being productive is important.

Note: If the market rejects the crypto bull run in 2024 then ETH could fall from $2,200 to $600 or $900, where I would have worked my butt off to put another $10k in at that point, which has less than 25% chance of happening in my mind.

Fun fact: I starting buying parts of a Bitcoin at $2,200 — the price ETH is now — back in 2017 before BTC ran to 20k and then fell to 3.8k in 2019 (and then went to $59k in 2021, and $15k in 2022). If I had bought 4.5 BTC in 2017 for $10,000k when the price had already gone from ~1k to 2.2k per BTC (like ETH has today), then I would now have $180,000 worth of BTC at the current price of $40k. That’s an 18x from $10k in 6 years. Strongly consider if your long-term savings will allow you to take the opportunity to get 4.5 ETH for $10k before the start of 2024, and hopefully you will thank your future self all the way to 2030 and beyond.

Mati Allin LLC. Some rights reserved.